If the Bills pick #8:
There's no reason why they shouldn't take the best player available which includes G, CB, S and even DE.
All the pundits believe that the top three OT's will be off the board before the Bills pick at #8. Most feel as if LB Dion Jordan, DT Sharrif Floyd and DE Ziggy Ansah will be gone as well.
The list in front of the Bills resting in the hands of Arizona would include QB's Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, and Ryan Nassib; top-rated CB, Dee Milliner, OG's Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack and WR Tavon Austin.
If Jordan, Ansah and Milliner are all off the board and they must make a pick, their pick should be: QB, MATT BARKLEY
If the Bills trade down, scenario one.
It takes two to tango and the Bills will need to have a partner, a partner who sees a player that they covet and are willing to trade picks to move up.
The San Diego Chargers (#11 overall) and Miami Dolphins (#12) both have needs at LT. If Lane Johnson somehow makes it to the Bills at #8, either SD or Miami would certainly be willing to trade up.
The trade: The #8 pick to Miami for their first (#12) and their #42 overall.
The Bills pick at #12: QB Matt Barkley
Should Barkley be off the board, CB Xavier Rhodes
If the Bills trade down, scenario two.
WR Tavon Austin is an electric receiver and there are two teams that would be interested in him: St. Louis and Minnesota and might be willing to move up to get him. Both have two first round picks.
a) Buffalo trades the #8 to St. Louis for the #16 and the #46. The Bills pick at #16: QB Matt Barkley, TE Tyler Eifert or LB Alec Ogletree
b) Buffalo trades the #8 to Minnesota for their #23 and #25 picks and pick two of QB Matt Barkley, TE Tyler Eifert, LB Alec Ogletree, LB Mantei Te'o, FS Eric Reid or WR Justin Hunter. In that order.
Showing posts with label 2013 draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2013 draft. Show all posts
Thursday, April 25, 2013
Should the Bills worry about not drafting a QB early?
No, not really.
Here are some reasons why.
They need help in too many areas and they'll need draft picks to do it.
Even if they "miss out" on Smith, Nassib or Barkley, there are others. They could even wait into the second round and reach for Zac Dysert, a player who they've been scouting for a while and who is likened to fellow Miami (OH) alum Ben Rothlisberger.
At 6'4", 228 pounds, he has the size. He has a good arm and performed well during his pro-day during inclement weather.
According to NFL.com's Gil Brandt, Dysert is a mid-round pick who doesn't quite have the arm or bulk of Rothlisberger, but has a lot of upside.
Nix has said that if you like a QB in the third round, you better get him in the second. He was inferring that QB's go higher than where they're ranked. Was it a Freudian slip that he didn't use second round to first round? At the Draft Luncheon he had this to say "You look back at last year and the year before, Russell Wilson and Colin Kapernick, right now if you were drafting you'd take them first. Take them in the top-five."
In a Last Great Act of Defiance (or stupidity for some,) as Nix gives way to AGM Doug Whaley, he might just trade down and take the best player available before reaching for a QB. If he has an extra second round pick, it's possible that Dysert could be picked with the latter as they address two pressing needs with their first and earlier second.
Here are some reasons why.
- The 2013 Schedule--It's tough. As usual there are two vs. the Patriots juggernaut, and two each vs. Miami and the Jets. They have four against the AFC North which includes the Super Bowl Champion Ravens, a rising playoff team with the Bengals, an always tough Steelers team and a much stronger Cleveland team. They have the NFC South this season--The Falcons and Saints, Bucs and Panthers. Two are against the Chiefs and Jags. Even with a "franchise QB," can anyone see this team going more than 6-10 this season? With that defense?
- They should have a plug for a year or two in Kevin Kolb. When asked about the signing of Kolb, GM Buddy Nix said that it made him sleep better at night. "You never know what's gonna happen at the draft," he said at the Bills Luncheon, "You can do all the planning you want, but it's still a crapshoot. We targeted Kevin early [as a FA]. We think he's a tough, smart guy that's been successful when he's had the tools around him." And when he's been healthy. Kolb was rated highly three years ago, but his stock has dropped due to injury.
- Every QB in this class has flaws, which make a reach for that "franchise QB" even more of a crapshoot. At the Luncheon, Nix talked about the QB class in the draft. He said he thinks it's better than people think and that there are two or three "franchise" quarterbacks in the draft. But he also said, "There's about five or six of those guys, maybe seven, that do a lot of things good and do a lot of things good enough to win. The jury's still out on this group, but they do enough good things--if you do what they do best--you can win with them." Good, system specific QB's that have flaws in their games.
- The Ryan Nassib-hype. Really, Sal (Paolantonio)? The Bills are fearful that the Jets will whisk Nassib away? He was rated a second or third round pick during the season because he was a very good QB with a strong arm, but played in the seventh-best conference in college football. He's not an immediate starter and as a project--either near or long-term--success is still questionable. He moved up into the first round because quarterbacks usually move at the draft. He moved into the top-10 because a) the Bills have the 8th overall pick, b) they've said their looking to draft a "franchise QB" and c) the Bills hired his coach and offensive coordinator from Syracuse. If anything, the Bills may have put up the Nassib smokescreen by hiring the Syracuse coaching tandem. That "Syracuse connection" is a little too cozy to be successful.
- The Bills have many holes. On defense their linebackers are highly suspect, they have a less than average corner opposite Stephone Gilmore, and there are questions at safety. On offense they have one real WR and they let two starters at guard walk. There should be three or four players who can fill a position of need rated much higher than any of the QB's in this class.
They need help in too many areas and they'll need draft picks to do it.
Even if they "miss out" on Smith, Nassib or Barkley, there are others. They could even wait into the second round and reach for Zac Dysert, a player who they've been scouting for a while and who is likened to fellow Miami (OH) alum Ben Rothlisberger.
At 6'4", 228 pounds, he has the size. He has a good arm and performed well during his pro-day during inclement weather.
According to NFL.com's Gil Brandt, Dysert is a mid-round pick who doesn't quite have the arm or bulk of Rothlisberger, but has a lot of upside.
Nix has said that if you like a QB in the third round, you better get him in the second. He was inferring that QB's go higher than where they're ranked. Was it a Freudian slip that he didn't use second round to first round? At the Draft Luncheon he had this to say "You look back at last year and the year before, Russell Wilson and Colin Kapernick, right now if you were drafting you'd take them first. Take them in the top-five."
In a Last Great Act of Defiance (or stupidity for some,) as Nix gives way to AGM Doug Whaley, he might just trade down and take the best player available before reaching for a QB. If he has an extra second round pick, it's possible that Dysert could be picked with the latter as they address two pressing needs with their first and earlier second.
Saturday, April 20, 2013
Where will the Bills pick a quarterback in the draft?
Bills GM Buddy Nix has said in the past few months that the team will be looking for a "franchise quarterback" in the draft.
Boy, did the media jump on that. In fact, even outside of Buffalo, some of those with mock drafts predicate the Bills first round (#8 overall) mock with "Nix has always been forthcoming with his picks, and Buffalo will pick ________, the quarterback from __________ at #8.
WGR's draft "guru," Joe Buscaglia is downright giddy when it comes to the possibility of the Bills drafting a quarterback in the first round, even before the Bills Draft Luncheon this past week. You could tell his supreme focus was on the QB position as most of his questions were directed there.
After deciphering Buddy's code, he's convinced that the Bills will take a QB with the eighth overall pick, "Going back over all 45 minutes of audio and quotes," he said, "one thing seems perfectly clear: the Bills are talking like a team that is going to take a quarterback with their first round pick."
At the luncheon Nix said that there's two or three "franchise quarterbacks" in the draft. Buscaglia takes that as a sure sign that the Bills will draft one of them. After all, as previously mentioned, Nix said that they will be looking for a "franchise quarterback" in the draft. Why would he mention two or three "franchise quarterbacks" and not take one?
Buscaglia does his homework. He crosses off all of the positions that the Bills don't need right now and he makes logical points as to some positions that are better served as a mid-lower round pick.
What it comes down to for him is quarterback. He speculates that Geno Smith will be off the board and comes to the conclusion that there are only two "franchise quarterbacks" left after him--Matt Barkley and Ryan Nassib.
Before we debunk Buscaglia's myth of deciphering Buddy's code, one should point out that, of all the quarterback's in this years draft, USC's Barkley is probably the only one worthy of the 8th-overall pick. At least for the Bills.
They like his overall package and they like his smarts, saying, "He's a brilliant guy. Picks it up in a hurry." Bills AGM Doug Whaley also likes the fact that Barkley's "been on the big stage for a while and produced."
When questions of arm-strength came up, especially with the conditions in Buffalo, Whaley defended quarterbacks like Barkely who don't have a "cannon arm." He talked about vision, timing, anticipation and "getting the most out of what [the quarterback] has."
He even used the Joe Montana comparison, to which Buscaglia immediately asked if there's he was making a comparison to the two. Whaley simply stated, "We believe he has a chance to be successful with his skill set."
Syracuse alum, Nassib, has been getting all kinds of attention from the media lately. For obvious reasons.
He's a quarterback with intangibles and a strong arm. But more important, at least in the eyes of Syracuse alum and morning WGR-guy, Jeremy White along with afternoon "entertainer" Mike Schoppsie, there's the Syracuse connection between Nassib, new Bills head coach Doug Marrone and new Bills offensive coordinator Nathanial Hackett.
The theme is continuity, since Nassib has spent the last three years running Hackett's system on Marrone's team. There's comfort. There's familiarity. There's an intimate, first-hand knowledge of the QB himself.
It's all frighteningly cozy.
Months prior, Nassib was looked at as a second or third round pick. But as with all drafts, a QB's stock climbs higher as the draft approaches. There will always be teams looking for a quarterback and will reach for one in hopes that they get that "franchise quarterback."
This year is no exception.
There are three, possibly four teams--Jacksonville (#2 overall,) Oakland (#3,) Philadelphia (#4) and Arizona (#7)--who could justify taking a quarterback with their pick. If, like Nix says, there are only two or three "franchise quarterbacks" in the draft, two may be off the board before Buffalo picks #8.
My guess is that Matt Barkley will be off the board. Oakland and Arizona could be prime destinations. Even Jacksonville could surprise, justifying Barkley at #2 by saying he was considered a #1 overall last year had he come out a year early.
Even Nix said as much at the luncheon, "that ol' boy a year ago was a #1 guy and then he got hurt. I don't know how much that affected him."
Smith was the consensus first overall pick early in his senior season last year, but completely fell apart in the second half. His "stock" plummeted, but the NFL Combine and private workouts have stabilized him. He seems to be one of those "right fit" kind of players--he will excel in the right environment.
Buffalo doesn't seem to be the "right environment" for Smith and his skill set.
If Barkley's gone, and assuming he Bills won't draft Smith, that leaves Nassib.
Nix's quote earlier, "two or three guys will be "franchise quarterbacks" leaves an opening for him and his staff an out--from a PR perspective (and we all know the cry for that quarterback in Buffalo.)
Are there two or three?
Is Nassib one of two? Is he the third?
Nix and Co. were very matter-of-fact and coy at the luncheon. They said they liked what he has to offer, said they were "obviously" familiar with him, but cautioned about jumping to conclusions. Said Doug Majewski, "Everybody assumes, just because it's Doug Marrone's guy, that [Nassib] was in the forefront. He was a good player, he was a guy we were aware of because it was so easy for us to get to Syracuse and see him play live."
Being coy?
We don't know because there's a lot of word-games being played at this time of year. No team wants to tip their hand as to who they will be drafting, and the Bills are no exception.
My guess is that they like the kid, but they already acquired a player like him when they signed Kevin Kolb for two years. They followed Nassib closely all season, and if they looked at him as second or third round pick earlier, no amount of media hype will sway them.
When Nix was asked later in the luncheon about the meteoric rise of QB EJ Manuel, he said, "I really don't pay attention to that stuff so I didn't know he was making a move."
He also dispelled any notion that Manuel would be considered at #8: "He can run the football. This league it's kind of a fad deal. I'm not saying [his running the football] is a fad, I'm saying the league does that, but it always comes back to being able to throw the football in this league to win and to score.
If you got a guy who can run it, first he has to be able to make NFL throws."
Then the kicker from Nix concerning Manuel, "I haven't seen him make NFL throws."
One quote from Nix concerning quarterbacks that hasn't been mentioned is his feeling that there are some good quarterbacks that do enough good things to win with. He said there's five, six, maybe seven that fall into that category. And I'm assuming that those "franchise quarterbacks" he mentioned are a part of that group.
"I've said from day one this quarterback class is better than everyone thinks it is," said Nix at the luncheon. "The jury's still out on this group, but they do enough good things--if you do what they do best--you can win with them."
If Barkley gets picked early--and they probably won't be trading up because Nix said, "I hate giving up draft picks"--it's unlikely they'd go after Smith and Nassib just doesn't seem worthy of an 8th overall.
What they might do is trade down, look for some additional picks and go for a quarterback late in the first round or early in the second. If QB's are off the board at that point, they may even wait until the third round.
Take a look at what Seattle did last year at the draft.
In the off-season they signed free agent Matt Flynn, then drafted Russell Wilson in the third round. Something that wasn't lost on Nix.
Wilson along with 2nd round pick Colin Kapernick (SF, 2011) ended up being prolific starters for their team. Neither were picked in the first round.
"You look back at last year and the year before," said Nix, "Wilson and Kapernick, right now if you were drafting you'd take them first. Take them in the top-five."
There are a bevy of second and third round worthy quarterbacks in this draft that "do enough good things you can win with."
Tyler Wilson, Mike Glennon, Tyler Bray and possibly Matt Scott. All of them, including Nassib, have their flaws. All of them are projects at one level or another. None of them, including Nassib, are projected to be immediate starters.
So where does this all lead?
Methinks that if there was one quarterback the Bills are likely after it's Barkley.
If he's off the board or if they think they could get him lower than #8, they'll trade down to get some extra picks.
Ideally, they'd be able to land Barkley between #16 and #23 after a trade with either St. Louis or Minnesota, respectively, both of whom have two first round picks.
Both teams are said to be hot and heavy for West Virginia WR Tavon Austin.
The Rams have the 22nd pick as well while the Vikings have the 25th.
The Bills said at the luncheon that they'd be willing to trade down, but that they won't really know until draft day. "A lot of that will be determined by the first five or six picks of the draft." said Nix. "If there's four or five guys we like there, we'll move back."
Which four of five, we don't know.
Barkley or bust might be the their thoughts.
But methinks that, dependent upon how the first seven picks pan out, they're really not worried about having to draft Barkley. They're not worried about missing out on a quarterback other than him if they trade down.
If he's not there, they'll get someone with a late first-rounder (via trade-down) or even a QB other than Nassib if he's taken ahead of them in the second round.
Other than Barkley, is there really much of a difference between Nassib or Wilson who both could be available the second day?
I'd go as far as saying is there that much of a difference between Nassib and projected third-rounder Zac Dysert (my personal choice as they trade down and accumulate picks in the first and/or second round?)
No. Not really.
Why reach for a project when there are so many other holes on the team to fill?
Boy, did the media jump on that. In fact, even outside of Buffalo, some of those with mock drafts predicate the Bills first round (#8 overall) mock with "Nix has always been forthcoming with his picks, and Buffalo will pick ________, the quarterback from __________ at #8.
WGR's draft "guru," Joe Buscaglia is downright giddy when it comes to the possibility of the Bills drafting a quarterback in the first round, even before the Bills Draft Luncheon this past week. You could tell his supreme focus was on the QB position as most of his questions were directed there.
After deciphering Buddy's code, he's convinced that the Bills will take a QB with the eighth overall pick, "Going back over all 45 minutes of audio and quotes," he said, "one thing seems perfectly clear: the Bills are talking like a team that is going to take a quarterback with their first round pick."
At the luncheon Nix said that there's two or three "franchise quarterbacks" in the draft. Buscaglia takes that as a sure sign that the Bills will draft one of them. After all, as previously mentioned, Nix said that they will be looking for a "franchise quarterback" in the draft. Why would he mention two or three "franchise quarterbacks" and not take one?
Buscaglia does his homework. He crosses off all of the positions that the Bills don't need right now and he makes logical points as to some positions that are better served as a mid-lower round pick.
What it comes down to for him is quarterback. He speculates that Geno Smith will be off the board and comes to the conclusion that there are only two "franchise quarterbacks" left after him--Matt Barkley and Ryan Nassib.
Before we debunk Buscaglia's myth of deciphering Buddy's code, one should point out that, of all the quarterback's in this years draft, USC's Barkley is probably the only one worthy of the 8th-overall pick. At least for the Bills.
They like his overall package and they like his smarts, saying, "He's a brilliant guy. Picks it up in a hurry." Bills AGM Doug Whaley also likes the fact that Barkley's "been on the big stage for a while and produced."
When questions of arm-strength came up, especially with the conditions in Buffalo, Whaley defended quarterbacks like Barkely who don't have a "cannon arm." He talked about vision, timing, anticipation and "getting the most out of what [the quarterback] has."
He even used the Joe Montana comparison, to which Buscaglia immediately asked if there's he was making a comparison to the two. Whaley simply stated, "We believe he has a chance to be successful with his skill set."
Syracuse alum, Nassib, has been getting all kinds of attention from the media lately. For obvious reasons.
He's a quarterback with intangibles and a strong arm. But more important, at least in the eyes of Syracuse alum and morning WGR-guy, Jeremy White along with afternoon "entertainer" Mike Schoppsie, there's the Syracuse connection between Nassib, new Bills head coach Doug Marrone and new Bills offensive coordinator Nathanial Hackett.
The theme is continuity, since Nassib has spent the last three years running Hackett's system on Marrone's team. There's comfort. There's familiarity. There's an intimate, first-hand knowledge of the QB himself.
It's all frighteningly cozy.
Months prior, Nassib was looked at as a second or third round pick. But as with all drafts, a QB's stock climbs higher as the draft approaches. There will always be teams looking for a quarterback and will reach for one in hopes that they get that "franchise quarterback."
This year is no exception.
There are three, possibly four teams--Jacksonville (#2 overall,) Oakland (#3,) Philadelphia (#4) and Arizona (#7)--who could justify taking a quarterback with their pick. If, like Nix says, there are only two or three "franchise quarterbacks" in the draft, two may be off the board before Buffalo picks #8.
My guess is that Matt Barkley will be off the board. Oakland and Arizona could be prime destinations. Even Jacksonville could surprise, justifying Barkley at #2 by saying he was considered a #1 overall last year had he come out a year early.
Even Nix said as much at the luncheon, "that ol' boy a year ago was a #1 guy and then he got hurt. I don't know how much that affected him."
Smith was the consensus first overall pick early in his senior season last year, but completely fell apart in the second half. His "stock" plummeted, but the NFL Combine and private workouts have stabilized him. He seems to be one of those "right fit" kind of players--he will excel in the right environment.
Buffalo doesn't seem to be the "right environment" for Smith and his skill set.
If Barkley's gone, and assuming he Bills won't draft Smith, that leaves Nassib.
Nix's quote earlier, "two or three guys will be "franchise quarterbacks" leaves an opening for him and his staff an out--from a PR perspective (and we all know the cry for that quarterback in Buffalo.)
Are there two or three?
Is Nassib one of two? Is he the third?
Nix and Co. were very matter-of-fact and coy at the luncheon. They said they liked what he has to offer, said they were "obviously" familiar with him, but cautioned about jumping to conclusions. Said Doug Majewski, "Everybody assumes, just because it's Doug Marrone's guy, that [Nassib] was in the forefront. He was a good player, he was a guy we were aware of because it was so easy for us to get to Syracuse and see him play live."
Being coy?
We don't know because there's a lot of word-games being played at this time of year. No team wants to tip their hand as to who they will be drafting, and the Bills are no exception.
My guess is that they like the kid, but they already acquired a player like him when they signed Kevin Kolb for two years. They followed Nassib closely all season, and if they looked at him as second or third round pick earlier, no amount of media hype will sway them.
When Nix was asked later in the luncheon about the meteoric rise of QB EJ Manuel, he said, "I really don't pay attention to that stuff so I didn't know he was making a move."
He also dispelled any notion that Manuel would be considered at #8: "He can run the football. This league it's kind of a fad deal. I'm not saying [his running the football] is a fad, I'm saying the league does that, but it always comes back to being able to throw the football in this league to win and to score.
If you got a guy who can run it, first he has to be able to make NFL throws."
Then the kicker from Nix concerning Manuel, "I haven't seen him make NFL throws."
One quote from Nix concerning quarterbacks that hasn't been mentioned is his feeling that there are some good quarterbacks that do enough good things to win with. He said there's five, six, maybe seven that fall into that category. And I'm assuming that those "franchise quarterbacks" he mentioned are a part of that group.
"I've said from day one this quarterback class is better than everyone thinks it is," said Nix at the luncheon. "The jury's still out on this group, but they do enough good things--if you do what they do best--you can win with them."
If Barkley gets picked early--and they probably won't be trading up because Nix said, "I hate giving up draft picks"--it's unlikely they'd go after Smith and Nassib just doesn't seem worthy of an 8th overall.
What they might do is trade down, look for some additional picks and go for a quarterback late in the first round or early in the second. If QB's are off the board at that point, they may even wait until the third round.
Take a look at what Seattle did last year at the draft.
In the off-season they signed free agent Matt Flynn, then drafted Russell Wilson in the third round. Something that wasn't lost on Nix.
Wilson along with 2nd round pick Colin Kapernick (SF, 2011) ended up being prolific starters for their team. Neither were picked in the first round.
"You look back at last year and the year before," said Nix, "Wilson and Kapernick, right now if you were drafting you'd take them first. Take them in the top-five."
There are a bevy of second and third round worthy quarterbacks in this draft that "do enough good things you can win with."
Tyler Wilson, Mike Glennon, Tyler Bray and possibly Matt Scott. All of them, including Nassib, have their flaws. All of them are projects at one level or another. None of them, including Nassib, are projected to be immediate starters.
So where does this all lead?
Methinks that if there was one quarterback the Bills are likely after it's Barkley.
If he's off the board or if they think they could get him lower than #8, they'll trade down to get some extra picks.
Ideally, they'd be able to land Barkley between #16 and #23 after a trade with either St. Louis or Minnesota, respectively, both of whom have two first round picks.
Both teams are said to be hot and heavy for West Virginia WR Tavon Austin.
The Rams have the 22nd pick as well while the Vikings have the 25th.
The Bills said at the luncheon that they'd be willing to trade down, but that they won't really know until draft day. "A lot of that will be determined by the first five or six picks of the draft." said Nix. "If there's four or five guys we like there, we'll move back."
Which four of five, we don't know.
Barkley or bust might be the their thoughts.
But methinks that, dependent upon how the first seven picks pan out, they're really not worried about having to draft Barkley. They're not worried about missing out on a quarterback other than him if they trade down.
If he's not there, they'll get someone with a late first-rounder (via trade-down) or even a QB other than Nassib if he's taken ahead of them in the second round.
Other than Barkley, is there really much of a difference between Nassib or Wilson who both could be available the second day?
I'd go as far as saying is there that much of a difference between Nassib and projected third-rounder Zac Dysert (my personal choice as they trade down and accumulate picks in the first and/or second round?)
No. Not really.
Why reach for a project when there are so many other holes on the team to fill?
Saturday, April 13, 2013
Setting up the 2013 draft for the Bills
Less than two weeks to go before draft day--a day of promise, a day of hope for Bills fans.
Between the draft and the first game there's plenty to get excited about. It's a few weeks into the season where reality sets in. Holes start popping up all over the team, and about three-quarters through the season, Bills fans are already looking towards the next draft.
And so it goes.
Back in December 2012, many were hoping for a top-five pick and a quarterback worth taking.
The Bills ended up with the eighth overall and choosing any quarterback there would be considered a reach bordering on desperation.
Bills GM Buddy Nix doesn't look to be desperate at QB. They offed Ryan Fitzpatrick and brought in veteran Kevin Kolb who was a hot commodity only a couple of seasons ago.
Kolb is signed for two years at a very reasonable $3M per season. A journeyman like him should at least be a plug until they can find and/or groom a QB.
Having never been a fan of drafting a quarterback out of desperation, especially in Buffalo where they look at the QB as the savior of the entire city, I'm of the opinion that they should draft the best player available as they continue to build.
Here are three teams who didn't reach for a QB over the past decade-plus and have built themselves into NFL powerhouses.
The Baltimore Ravens won the Superbowl in 2000 with Trent Dilfer at the helm and a stout defense. Dilfer replaced Tony Banks during that season.
Between 2001 and 2008 when they picked Joe Flacco with the 18th overall pick, they went through eight quarterbacks: Elvis Grbac, Randall Cunningham, Jeff Blake, Chris Redman, Kyle Boller, Anthony Wright, Steve McNair, and Troy Smith.
Of those QB's, only Boller was taken by Baltimore in the first round (#19.) He was picked after they took DE Terrell Suggs at #10.
In those seven seasons they had an overall record of 60-52, they made the playoffs three times and had a 1-3 record.
Two other teams, the San Francisco 49'ers and the Seattle Seahawks were lauded for their QB drafting in the previous two drafts--San Francisco picking Colin Kapernick in the second round in 2011 (#36 overall) and Seattle picking Russell Wilson in the third round (#75 overall.)
Of note, both teams had their starters in place heading into camp before they selected those QB's.
Kapernick replaced former #1 overall pick Alex Smith midway through the 2012 season and guided the team to the Superbowl where they lost to Baltimore. Smith had lost in the NFC Championship game the season before.
Looking back to the same 2000 season as we did with Baltimore, Calgary Stampeders Wall of Famer Jeff Garcia took over the reigns at QB for San Francisco after Hall of Famer Steve Young retired that year.
The list of QB's between Garcia and Kapernick isn't very long as Garcia and Smith were taking nearly all the snaps.
Between 2000 and 2005 when the 49'ers drafted Smith #1 overall, the highest they drafted a QB was the third round.
The Seahawks, as previously stated, were lauded for their pick of Wilson and he immediately became successful.
Seattle was able to take a shot at Wilson because they had already signed highly regarded free agent QB Matt Flynn in the off season.
No reach, no desperation.
Their list of QB's dating back to 2000 goes like this: John Kitna and Brock Huard in 2000, Trent Dilfer, Matt Hasselbeck from 2001 to 2010, Seneca Wallace, Charlie Frye, Charlie Whitehurst, and Tavaris Jackson.
With Hasselbeck in place, GM Mike Holmgren did not draft a QB higher than the third round.
When Pete Carroll took over in 2010, he had an aging Hasselbeck. He didn't draft a QB in his first two years, then drafted Wilson.
So what does this all mean?
Three quality teams, 13 draft-years, not one reach for a "franchise" quarterback.
Even if it means two years with Kevin Kolb and/or Tavaris Jackson at the helm, with as many holes the Bills have, especially on defense and at WR, an aversion to a desperation pick at #8 might be the wise decision.
Between the draft and the first game there's plenty to get excited about. It's a few weeks into the season where reality sets in. Holes start popping up all over the team, and about three-quarters through the season, Bills fans are already looking towards the next draft.
And so it goes.
Back in December 2012, many were hoping for a top-five pick and a quarterback worth taking.
The Bills ended up with the eighth overall and choosing any quarterback there would be considered a reach bordering on desperation.
Bills GM Buddy Nix doesn't look to be desperate at QB. They offed Ryan Fitzpatrick and brought in veteran Kevin Kolb who was a hot commodity only a couple of seasons ago.
Kolb is signed for two years at a very reasonable $3M per season. A journeyman like him should at least be a plug until they can find and/or groom a QB.
Having never been a fan of drafting a quarterback out of desperation, especially in Buffalo where they look at the QB as the savior of the entire city, I'm of the opinion that they should draft the best player available as they continue to build.
Here are three teams who didn't reach for a QB over the past decade-plus and have built themselves into NFL powerhouses.
The Baltimore Ravens won the Superbowl in 2000 with Trent Dilfer at the helm and a stout defense. Dilfer replaced Tony Banks during that season.
Between 2001 and 2008 when they picked Joe Flacco with the 18th overall pick, they went through eight quarterbacks: Elvis Grbac, Randall Cunningham, Jeff Blake, Chris Redman, Kyle Boller, Anthony Wright, Steve McNair, and Troy Smith.
Of those QB's, only Boller was taken by Baltimore in the first round (#19.) He was picked after they took DE Terrell Suggs at #10.
In those seven seasons they had an overall record of 60-52, they made the playoffs three times and had a 1-3 record.
Two other teams, the San Francisco 49'ers and the Seattle Seahawks were lauded for their QB drafting in the previous two drafts--San Francisco picking Colin Kapernick in the second round in 2011 (#36 overall) and Seattle picking Russell Wilson in the third round (#75 overall.)
Of note, both teams had their starters in place heading into camp before they selected those QB's.
Kapernick replaced former #1 overall pick Alex Smith midway through the 2012 season and guided the team to the Superbowl where they lost to Baltimore. Smith had lost in the NFC Championship game the season before.
Looking back to the same 2000 season as we did with Baltimore, Calgary Stampeders Wall of Famer Jeff Garcia took over the reigns at QB for San Francisco after Hall of Famer Steve Young retired that year.
The list of QB's between Garcia and Kapernick isn't very long as Garcia and Smith were taking nearly all the snaps.
Between 2000 and 2005 when the 49'ers drafted Smith #1 overall, the highest they drafted a QB was the third round.
The Seahawks, as previously stated, were lauded for their pick of Wilson and he immediately became successful.
Seattle was able to take a shot at Wilson because they had already signed highly regarded free agent QB Matt Flynn in the off season.
No reach, no desperation.
Their list of QB's dating back to 2000 goes like this: John Kitna and Brock Huard in 2000, Trent Dilfer, Matt Hasselbeck from 2001 to 2010, Seneca Wallace, Charlie Frye, Charlie Whitehurst, and Tavaris Jackson.
With Hasselbeck in place, GM Mike Holmgren did not draft a QB higher than the third round.
When Pete Carroll took over in 2010, he had an aging Hasselbeck. He didn't draft a QB in his first two years, then drafted Wilson.
So what does this all mean?
Three quality teams, 13 draft-years, not one reach for a "franchise" quarterback.
Even if it means two years with Kevin Kolb and/or Tavaris Jackson at the helm, with as many holes the Bills have, especially on defense and at WR, an aversion to a desperation pick at #8 might be the wise decision.
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Gil Brandt has a #8-overall pick that actually makes sense for the Bills
The Syracuse alum are all over Orange QB Ryan Nassib as the Bills first pick in the 2013 draft. They point to the connection between Nassib, former Syracuse head coach/new Bills head coach Doug Marrone and former Orange offensive coordinator/new Bills OC Nathaniel Hackett. It's rather cozy, isn't it?
Nassib joined John Murphy on WGR, and it would seem as if he feels it's a foregone conclusion that he'll end up a Buffalo Bill.
Nassib is at the Senior Bowl and is interviewing with a number of teams including the Bills and Marrone. Here's what he had to say when Murphy asked if it was weird interviewing with his former college coach:
Said Nassib, "It was a little strange. It kinda felt like I was interviewing for a job [pause] you know..." Murphy injects, "That you already won?"
Nassib continues, "Yeah...that I had...not too long ago with him. I feel like he knows about me." Nassib throws this out rather casually, "I mean we've been together for four years [at Syracuse.] It's just an opportunity to meet the other guys on the staff that I would be working with...if I were to go to the Bills."
Yikes!
Cozy would be an understatement. A little too perfect. Makes me want to throw up.
This whole Nassib thing is predicated upon the belief that the Bills should draft a quarterback as high as possible. It's a notion that's been gaining steam this whole season, as the boys on WGR--from Jeremy White to Howard Simon to Paul Hamilton to Bulldog--have unabashedly stated time and time again that Ryan Fitzpatrick should never hit the field as the Bills starter again. Most people think the Bills should draft a QB with their first pick, regardless of whether or not he's worthy of it.
Here's what CBSSports.com's draft guru's have to say on the matter.
Rob Rang, a morning show favorite has the Bills picking Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson at #8:
By the way, Cherpinsky's partner, Charlie Campbell also has the Bills picking Glennon after a switch from Wilson.
The assumption that the QB position is the major reason the Bills have not made the playoffs is rampant across the league. Yes, they could use an upgrade at quarterback, and they will, as GM Buddy Nix has said, address the issue at the draft, or even through free agency.
And then there are the voices of reason who think that the Bills should be looking at a linebacker, amongst them, NFL.com's, Gil Brandt.
While ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. has Buffalo taking linebacker Manti T'eo (all-in-all still not a bad pick because of the dearth of linebacker talent on the Bills,) Brandt has them taking another linebacker, Alec Ogletree from Alabama in his first mock draft.
Here's what Brandt had to say: "Ogletree would help the Bills' defense a lot. Buffalo also needs receiver help, but that can be had later in the draft."
I really didn't see any mention of a QB there. No Nassib. No Wilson. No Bray. No Zack Dysert. In fact Brandt has only Oakland (#3--Geno Smith) and Arizona (#7, Matt Barkley) taking first-round quarterbacks in his mock draft. (Brandt, of course, is not given to hype therefore not projecting four, five even six QB's going in the first round.)
And if the WGR boys need more proof that drafting a QB #8 overall is a waste, HOF'er Jim Kelly thinks so as well--"you gotta understand guys," he said to Simon, "what is out there?" (8:48-mark.)
Exactly.
Nassib joined John Murphy on WGR, and it would seem as if he feels it's a foregone conclusion that he'll end up a Buffalo Bill.
Nassib is at the Senior Bowl and is interviewing with a number of teams including the Bills and Marrone. Here's what he had to say when Murphy asked if it was weird interviewing with his former college coach:
Said Nassib, "It was a little strange. It kinda felt like I was interviewing for a job [pause] you know..." Murphy injects, "That you already won?"
Nassib continues, "Yeah...that I had...not too long ago with him. I feel like he knows about me." Nassib throws this out rather casually, "I mean we've been together for four years [at Syracuse.] It's just an opportunity to meet the other guys on the staff that I would be working with...if I were to go to the Bills."
Yikes!
Cozy would be an understatement. A little too perfect. Makes me want to throw up.
This whole Nassib thing is predicated upon the belief that the Bills should draft a quarterback as high as possible. It's a notion that's been gaining steam this whole season, as the boys on WGR--from Jeremy White to Howard Simon to Paul Hamilton to Bulldog--have unabashedly stated time and time again that Ryan Fitzpatrick should never hit the field as the Bills starter again. Most people think the Bills should draft a QB with their first pick, regardless of whether or not he's worthy of it.
Here's what CBSSports.com's draft guru's have to say on the matter.
Rob Rang, a morning show favorite has the Bills picking Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson at #8:
While incumbent starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is far from the team's weakest link, few believe he is the caliber of quarterback that can lead Buffalo to a Super Bowl. Furthermore, general manager Buddy Nix has specifically stated he hopes to find the team's quarterback of the future. While new head coach Doug Marrone might prefer his former Syracuse signal-caller Ryan Nassib, Wilson has the production against SEC competition to make he -- and the rest of Buffalo -- believers.His colleague, Dane Brugler has NC State QB Mike Glennon going to the Bills at #8:
With new head coach Doug Marrone in Buffalo, his former Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib makes a lot of sense for the Bills in the second round. But Buffalo can't afford to pass on a quarterback in the first round if they feel another one is worth this pick.Walter Cherpinsky of walterfootball.com has had the Bills picking a QB for months. He keeps the same synopsis, but plugs in a different name. Where once he said Tyler Bray or Tyler Wilson, he now goes with Glennon, yet he has always started out with those four words, "this is a reach":
This is a reach - I had Mike Glennon in the second round a couple of updates ago - but we've seen second-day talents like Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder go in the top 12. Teams are so desperate for quarterbacks that they'll make moves like this.This completely encapsulates the Buffalo media sentiment while hoping to land that franchise quarterback/savior: "it's a reach." Nix will "talk himself into taking one of them." Glennon is "getting the most hype right now." That is, of course, until Walter updates his Bills' pick with the QB who's presently getting the most hype, Nassib, a player who would be considered a reach that Nix will talk himself into.
General manager Buddy Nix, who is generally forthcoming about his offseason plans, told the media that he plans on drafting a franchise quarterback. He even said he'll trade up for one in the 2013 NFL Draft. He may have been talking about Geno Smith if the Chiefs pass on him, but he won't have to move anywhere for Glennon.
It's still early, but I believe Glennon and Tyler Wilson are the two favorites for this selection. Nix will talk himself into taking one of them. Glennon is getting the most hype right now, with Mel Kiper even saying that he could be the first quarterback off the board. I liked this pick more when Chan Gailey was still the coach, as Glennon fit perfectly into his offense.
By the way, Cherpinsky's partner, Charlie Campbell also has the Bills picking Glennon after a switch from Wilson.
The assumption that the QB position is the major reason the Bills have not made the playoffs is rampant across the league. Yes, they could use an upgrade at quarterback, and they will, as GM Buddy Nix has said, address the issue at the draft, or even through free agency.
And then there are the voices of reason who think that the Bills should be looking at a linebacker, amongst them, NFL.com's, Gil Brandt.
While ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. has Buffalo taking linebacker Manti T'eo (all-in-all still not a bad pick because of the dearth of linebacker talent on the Bills,) Brandt has them taking another linebacker, Alec Ogletree from Alabama in his first mock draft.
Here's what Brandt had to say: "Ogletree would help the Bills' defense a lot. Buffalo also needs receiver help, but that can be had later in the draft."
I really didn't see any mention of a QB there. No Nassib. No Wilson. No Bray. No Zack Dysert. In fact Brandt has only Oakland (#3--Geno Smith) and Arizona (#7, Matt Barkley) taking first-round quarterbacks in his mock draft. (Brandt, of course, is not given to hype therefore not projecting four, five even six QB's going in the first round.)
And if the WGR boys need more proof that drafting a QB #8 overall is a waste, HOF'er Jim Kelly thinks so as well--"you gotta understand guys," he said to Simon, "what is out there?" (8:48-mark.)
Exactly.
Wednesday, December 26, 2012
#4-overall pick in the 2013 NFL would suit the Bills well
The conversation on WGR 550 this morning centered on the Bills last game of the 2012 season vs. the NY Jets.
The Bills head into the final game with a 5-10 record and are in the #6 spot for the draft. Kansas City and Jacksonville will have the first two spots locked up. Oakland sits third, seemingly solidified in that spot while Philadelphia and Detroit (both, surprisingly) occupy the fourth and fifth slots, respectively. The Bills sit "atop" a bevy of teams with five wins but hold the "top" spot because of a weaker schedule. (For more on their present position via WGR, click here.)
At present, the Bills could reach as high as 3rd with a loss or drop down to as low as #10 with a win, so the issue at hand for the GR boys--Jeremy White and Sal Cappaccio--was whether the Bills should tank in the last and final game.
The answer here is a definitive....yes.
The argument for "integrity," "playing for the coach" and/or "playing to win" are always there and would hold the team and individual players up to lofty standards. But, in this instance one should say, "the hell with it."
Stuff like this happens all the time and one could make a strong case that the Indianapolis Colts--who were probably losing their Hall of Fame quarterback in Peyton Manning after a career threatening neck injury in 2011--tanked the 2011 season in order to secure the top pick in the draft. The #1-overall pick just happened to be a quarterback touted as one of the best college prospects since...well...Peyton Manning in Andrew Luck. The Luck pick allowed the Colts and Manning to part ways this past off-season.
Surprise!!! The Colts went from a 2-14 team to the playoffs with Luck at the helm even though he has not been Hall of Fame calibre this season (although he's has been pretty solid and will probably end up #2 or #3 in Rookie of the Year balloting.)
Also, from Wiki: "The Colts were the first team in NFL history to come off nine straight playoff appearances, and then start the following season 0-13. The Colts were the first team to start 0-13 since the 2008 Detroit Lions; it was the worst start in franchise history. The Colts also had the worst record of any AFC team since the Kansas City Chiefs in 2008."
Anyway, a Bills loss in the final game coupled with a win by either Philly or Detroit--or, better yet, both--would move them up another spot or two. And, ideally, that would land them in the #4 spot of the draft. Not only would that give them the fourth overall, but they would also have the third pick in the 2nd-round.
Being in the four-hole should allow them to draft a quarterback--a DEFENSIVE QUARTERBACK.
That player being Manti Te'o of Notre Dame.
Yes, all the boys at WGR, are clamoring for a "franchise quarterback" and a point could be made that the Bills could use a significant upgrade at QB. But it would be pure nonsense to waste a high draft pick reaching for what they, and fans, really want--a savior. The drop-off from the consensus top QB, Geno Smith (likely #1 overall pick) to Matt Barkley (a reach anywhere above the middle first round) to a group of second to third rounders like Mike Glennon, Tyler Bray and Tyler Wilson makes for a very thin QB pool.
Te'o is considered an easy top-five pick in the draft who could immediately have an impact on one of the worst defenses in the league. He's a three-down middle linebacker with football smarts. He's also a ball-hawk who's improved his pass coverage and is a leader on the #1 college team in the country--a team that overachieved all season, especially on defense.
Would you rather draft that, or go for a quarterback with deficiencies that may or may not be corrected?
Just too many question marks with the latter.
An argument can be made that the most glaring weakness on the 2012 Bills, was not at quarterback, it was at linebacker. Average at best is the proper term when describing this group and one could easily make a case that they need at least two linebackers--including middle--more than they need a quarterback right now.
Throughout the history of the Bills, there have been relatively few impact players at linebacker: Cornelius Bennett, Shane Conlan, Jim Haslett, and Darryl Talley come to mind.
But the best middle linebacker in Bills history is from their AFL Championship seasons back in the 60's--Mike Stratton.
Some background.
Mike Stratton (13th-round, #100-overall, 1962 AFL draft)
1st team All-pro, 6-time Pro Bowl selection
"The Hit Heard Round the World" (from the Greater Buffalo Sports Hall of Fame)
From that moment, the Bills seized the momentum. The Chargers, already minus star receiver Lance Alworth, had lost their other star offensive performer, and their offense was out of business for the day. The Bills roared back with 20 unanswered points to claim the title, a title they successfully defended the following year on the Chargers’ home turf as Stratton and his defensive cohorts pitched a shutout.
Buffalo players and other observers cited “The Hit” as a turning point not only for one game, but for the fortunes of the franchise. The play was a springboard to the consecutive titles that established the Bills as a dominant team in the AFL; it was also a statement by the swarming, physical defense that paved the way for the team’s success.'
Nothing would help an offensive transition to the quarterback of he future, like a physical defense to pave the way and take pressure off of the QB--whether it be a free agent, draft choice or present quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick . Having a Stratton-like difference maker would go far and that piece of the puzzle could be within the Bills reach this draft in linebacker Manti Te'o.
The Bills head into the final game with a 5-10 record and are in the #6 spot for the draft. Kansas City and Jacksonville will have the first two spots locked up. Oakland sits third, seemingly solidified in that spot while Philadelphia and Detroit (both, surprisingly) occupy the fourth and fifth slots, respectively. The Bills sit "atop" a bevy of teams with five wins but hold the "top" spot because of a weaker schedule. (For more on their present position via WGR, click here.)
At present, the Bills could reach as high as 3rd with a loss or drop down to as low as #10 with a win, so the issue at hand for the GR boys--Jeremy White and Sal Cappaccio--was whether the Bills should tank in the last and final game.
The answer here is a definitive....yes.
The argument for "integrity," "playing for the coach" and/or "playing to win" are always there and would hold the team and individual players up to lofty standards. But, in this instance one should say, "the hell with it."
Stuff like this happens all the time and one could make a strong case that the Indianapolis Colts--who were probably losing their Hall of Fame quarterback in Peyton Manning after a career threatening neck injury in 2011--tanked the 2011 season in order to secure the top pick in the draft. The #1-overall pick just happened to be a quarterback touted as one of the best college prospects since...well...Peyton Manning in Andrew Luck. The Luck pick allowed the Colts and Manning to part ways this past off-season.
Surprise!!! The Colts went from a 2-14 team to the playoffs with Luck at the helm even though he has not been Hall of Fame calibre this season (although he's has been pretty solid and will probably end up #2 or #3 in Rookie of the Year balloting.)
Also, from Wiki: "The Colts were the first team in NFL history to come off nine straight playoff appearances, and then start the following season 0-13. The Colts were the first team to start 0-13 since the 2008 Detroit Lions; it was the worst start in franchise history. The Colts also had the worst record of any AFC team since the Kansas City Chiefs in 2008."
Anyway, a Bills loss in the final game coupled with a win by either Philly or Detroit--or, better yet, both--would move them up another spot or two. And, ideally, that would land them in the #4 spot of the draft. Not only would that give them the fourth overall, but they would also have the third pick in the 2nd-round.
 |
| Notre Dame's Manti Te'o should be a top-five pick in the 2013 NFL. Hopefully, it will be the Buffalo Bills. |
That player being Manti Te'o of Notre Dame.
Yes, all the boys at WGR, are clamoring for a "franchise quarterback" and a point could be made that the Bills could use a significant upgrade at QB. But it would be pure nonsense to waste a high draft pick reaching for what they, and fans, really want--a savior. The drop-off from the consensus top QB, Geno Smith (likely #1 overall pick) to Matt Barkley (a reach anywhere above the middle first round) to a group of second to third rounders like Mike Glennon, Tyler Bray and Tyler Wilson makes for a very thin QB pool.
Te'o is considered an easy top-five pick in the draft who could immediately have an impact on one of the worst defenses in the league. He's a three-down middle linebacker with football smarts. He's also a ball-hawk who's improved his pass coverage and is a leader on the #1 college team in the country--a team that overachieved all season, especially on defense.
Would you rather draft that, or go for a quarterback with deficiencies that may or may not be corrected?
Just too many question marks with the latter.
An argument can be made that the most glaring weakness on the 2012 Bills, was not at quarterback, it was at linebacker. Average at best is the proper term when describing this group and one could easily make a case that they need at least two linebackers--including middle--more than they need a quarterback right now.
Throughout the history of the Bills, there have been relatively few impact players at linebacker: Cornelius Bennett, Shane Conlan, Jim Haslett, and Darryl Talley come to mind.
But the best middle linebacker in Bills history is from their AFL Championship seasons back in the 60's--Mike Stratton.
Some background.
 |
| The 2013 edition of the Buffalo Bills could use a difference maker on defense like Mike Stratton was during their AFL championship seasons. |
1st team All-pro, 6-time Pro Bowl selection
"The Hit Heard Round the World" (from the Greater Buffalo Sports Hall of Fame)
'Otherwise known as “The Hit Heard Round the World”, Stratton’s indelible moment came early in the 1964 AFL Championship game at War Memorial Stadium. The opponents, the defending AFL Champion San Diego Chargers, scored easily in four plays the first time they touched the ball, and four plays later it was back in their hands. Chargers quarterback Tobin Rote floated a swing pass to star halfback Keith Lincoln in the left flat. At precisely the instant Lincoln reached up for the pass, Stratton arrived like a locomotive. Stratton timed the hit perfectly, driving his right shoulder into the ballcarrier’s rib cage and driving him to the frozen turf with both arms. The hit not only separated Lincoln from the ball, but also cracked three ribs, driving him from the game.
From that moment, the Bills seized the momentum. The Chargers, already minus star receiver Lance Alworth, had lost their other star offensive performer, and their offense was out of business for the day. The Bills roared back with 20 unanswered points to claim the title, a title they successfully defended the following year on the Chargers’ home turf as Stratton and his defensive cohorts pitched a shutout.
Buffalo players and other observers cited “The Hit” as a turning point not only for one game, but for the fortunes of the franchise. The play was a springboard to the consecutive titles that established the Bills as a dominant team in the AFL; it was also a statement by the swarming, physical defense that paved the way for the team’s success.'
Nothing would help an offensive transition to the quarterback of he future, like a physical defense to pave the way and take pressure off of the QB--whether it be a free agent, draft choice or present quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick . Having a Stratton-like difference maker would go far and that piece of the puzzle could be within the Bills reach this draft in linebacker Manti Te'o.
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