Saturday, April 13, 2013

Setting up the 2013 draft for the Bills

Less than two weeks to go before draft day--a day of promise, a day of hope for Bills fans.

Between the draft and the first game there's plenty to get excited about. It's a few weeks into the season where reality sets in. Holes start popping up all over the team, and about three-quarters through the season, Bills fans are already looking towards the next draft.

And so it goes.

Back in December 2012, many were hoping for a top-five pick and a quarterback worth taking.

The Bills ended up with the eighth overall and choosing any quarterback there would be considered a reach bordering on desperation.

Bills GM Buddy Nix doesn't look to be desperate at QB. They offed Ryan Fitzpatrick and brought in veteran Kevin Kolb who was a hot commodity only a couple of seasons ago.

Kolb is signed for two years at a very reasonable $3M per season. A journeyman like him should at least be a plug until they can find and/or groom a QB.

Having never been a fan of drafting a quarterback out of desperation, especially in Buffalo where they look at the QB as the savior of the entire city, I'm of the opinion that they should draft the best player available as they continue to build.

Here are three teams who didn't reach for a QB over the past decade-plus and have built themselves into NFL powerhouses.

The Baltimore Ravens won the Superbowl in 2000 with Trent Dilfer at the helm and a stout defense. Dilfer replaced Tony Banks during that season.

Between 2001 and 2008 when they picked Joe Flacco with the 18th overall pick, they went through eight quarterbacks:  Elvis Grbac, Randall Cunningham, Jeff Blake, Chris Redman, Kyle Boller, Anthony Wright, Steve McNair, and Troy Smith.

Of those QB's, only Boller was taken by Baltimore in the first round (#19.) He was picked after they took DE Terrell Suggs at #10.

In those seven seasons they had an overall record of 60-52, they made the playoffs three times and had a 1-3 record.

Two other teams, the San Francisco 49'ers and the Seattle Seahawks were lauded for their QB drafting in the previous two drafts--San Francisco picking Colin Kapernick in the second round in 2011 (#36 overall) and Seattle picking Russell Wilson in the third round (#75 overall.)

Of note, both teams had their starters in place heading into camp before they selected those QB's.

Kapernick replaced former #1 overall pick Alex Smith midway through the 2012 season and guided the team to the Superbowl where they lost to Baltimore. Smith had lost in the NFC Championship game the season before.

Looking back to the same 2000 season as we did with Baltimore, Calgary Stampeders Wall of Famer Jeff Garcia took over the reigns at QB for San Francisco after Hall of Famer Steve Young retired that year.

The list of QB's between Garcia and Kapernick isn't very long as Garcia and Smith were taking nearly all the snaps.

Between 2000 and 2005 when the 49'ers drafted Smith #1 overall, the highest they drafted a QB was the third round.

The Seahawks, as previously stated, were lauded for their pick of Wilson and he immediately became successful.

Seattle was able to take a shot at Wilson because they had already signed highly regarded free agent QB Matt Flynn in the off season.

No reach, no desperation.

Their list of QB's dating back to 2000 goes like this:  John Kitna and Brock Huard in 2000, Trent Dilfer, Matt Hasselbeck from 2001 to 2010, Seneca Wallace, Charlie Frye, Charlie Whitehurst, and Tavaris Jackson.

With Hasselbeck in place, GM Mike Holmgren did not draft a QB higher than the third round.

When Pete Carroll took over in 2010, he had an aging Hasselbeck. He didn't draft a QB in his first two years, then drafted Wilson.

So what does this all mean?

Three quality teams, 13 draft-years, not one reach for a "franchise" quarterback.

Even if it means two years with Kevin Kolb and/or Tavaris Jackson at the helm, with as many holes the Bills have, especially on defense and at WR, an aversion to a desperation pick at #8 might be the wise decision.

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