Bills GM Buddy Nix has said in the past few months that the team will be looking for a "franchise quarterback" in the draft.
Boy, did the media jump on that. In fact, even outside of Buffalo, some of those with mock drafts predicate the Bills first round (#8 overall) mock with "Nix has always been forthcoming with his picks, and Buffalo will pick ________, the quarterback from __________ at #8.
WGR's draft "guru," Joe Buscaglia is downright giddy when it comes to the possibility of the Bills drafting a quarterback in the first round, even before the Bills Draft Luncheon this past week. You could tell his supreme focus was on the QB position as most of his questions were directed there.
After deciphering Buddy's code, he's convinced that the Bills will take a QB with the eighth overall pick, "Going back over all 45 minutes of audio and quotes," he said, "one thing seems perfectly clear: the Bills are talking like a team that is going to take a quarterback with their first round pick."
At the luncheon Nix said that there's two or three "franchise quarterbacks" in the draft. Buscaglia takes that as a sure sign that the Bills will draft one of them. After all, as previously mentioned, Nix said that they will be looking for a "franchise quarterback" in the draft. Why would he mention two or three "franchise quarterbacks" and not take one?
Buscaglia does his homework. He crosses off all of the positions that the Bills don't need right now and he makes logical points as to some positions that are better served as a mid-lower round pick.
What it comes down to for him is quarterback. He speculates that Geno Smith will be off the board and comes to the conclusion that there are only two "franchise quarterbacks" left after him--Matt Barkley and Ryan Nassib.
Before we debunk Buscaglia's myth of deciphering Buddy's code, one should point out that, of all the quarterback's in this years draft, USC's Barkley is probably the only one worthy of the 8th-overall pick. At least for the Bills.
They like his overall package and they like his smarts, saying, "He's a brilliant guy. Picks it up in a hurry." Bills AGM Doug Whaley also likes the fact that Barkley's "been on the big stage for a while and produced."
When questions of arm-strength came up, especially with the conditions in Buffalo, Whaley defended quarterbacks like Barkely who don't have a "cannon arm." He talked about vision, timing, anticipation and "getting the most out of what [the quarterback] has."
He even used the Joe Montana comparison, to which Buscaglia immediately asked if there's he was making a comparison to the two. Whaley simply stated, "We believe he has a chance to be successful with his skill set."
Syracuse alum, Nassib, has been getting all kinds of attention from the media lately. For obvious reasons.
He's a quarterback with intangibles and a strong arm. But more important, at least in the eyes of Syracuse alum and morning WGR-guy, Jeremy White along with afternoon "entertainer" Mike Schoppsie, there's the Syracuse connection between Nassib, new Bills head coach Doug Marrone and new Bills offensive coordinator Nathanial Hackett.
The theme is continuity, since Nassib has spent the last three years running Hackett's system on Marrone's team. There's comfort. There's familiarity. There's an intimate, first-hand knowledge of the QB himself.
It's all frighteningly cozy.
Months prior, Nassib was looked at as a second or third round pick. But as with all drafts, a QB's stock climbs higher as the draft approaches. There will always be teams looking for a quarterback and will reach for one in hopes that they get that "franchise quarterback."
This year is no exception.
There are three, possibly four teams--Jacksonville (#2 overall,) Oakland (#3,) Philadelphia (#4) and Arizona (#7)--who could justify taking a quarterback with their pick. If, like Nix says, there are only two or three "franchise quarterbacks" in the draft, two may be off the board before Buffalo picks #8.
My guess is that Matt Barkley will be off the board. Oakland and Arizona could be prime destinations. Even Jacksonville could surprise, justifying Barkley at #2 by saying he was considered a #1 overall last year had he come out a year early.
Even Nix said as much at the luncheon, "that ol' boy a year ago was a #1 guy and then he got hurt. I don't know how much that affected him."
Smith was the consensus first overall pick early in his senior season last year, but completely fell apart in the second half. His "stock" plummeted, but the NFL Combine and private workouts have stabilized him. He seems to be one of those "right fit" kind of players--he will excel in the right environment.
Buffalo doesn't seem to be the "right environment" for Smith and his skill set.
If Barkley's gone, and assuming he Bills won't draft Smith, that leaves Nassib.
Nix's quote earlier, "two or three guys will be "franchise quarterbacks" leaves an opening for him and his staff an out--from a PR perspective (and we all know the cry for that quarterback in Buffalo.)
Are there two or three?
Is Nassib one of two? Is he the third?
Nix and Co. were very matter-of-fact and coy at the luncheon. They said they liked what he has to offer, said they were "obviously" familiar with him, but cautioned about jumping to conclusions. Said Doug Majewski, "Everybody assumes, just because it's Doug Marrone's guy, that [Nassib] was in the forefront. He was a good player, he was a guy we were aware of because it was so easy for us to get to Syracuse and see him play live."
Being coy?
We don't know because there's a lot of word-games being played at this time of year. No team wants to tip their hand as to who they will be drafting, and the Bills are no exception.
My guess is that they like the kid, but they already acquired a player like him when they signed Kevin Kolb for two years. They followed Nassib closely all season, and if they looked at him as second or third round pick earlier, no amount of media hype will sway them.
When Nix was asked later in the luncheon about the meteoric rise of QB EJ Manuel, he said, "I really don't pay attention to that stuff so I didn't know he was making a move."
He also dispelled any notion that Manuel would be considered at #8: "He can run the football. This league it's kind of a fad deal. I'm not saying [his running the football] is a fad, I'm saying the league does that, but it always comes back to being able to throw the football in this league to win and to score.
If you got a guy who can run it, first he has to be able to make NFL throws."
Then the kicker from Nix concerning Manuel, "I haven't seen him make NFL throws."
One quote from Nix concerning quarterbacks that hasn't been mentioned is his feeling that there are some good quarterbacks that do enough good things to win with. He said there's five, six, maybe seven that fall into that category. And I'm assuming that those "franchise quarterbacks" he mentioned are a part of that group.
"I've said from day one this quarterback class is better than everyone thinks it is," said Nix at the luncheon. "The jury's still out on this group, but they do enough good things--if you do what they do best--you can win with them."
If Barkley gets picked early--and they probably won't be trading up because Nix said, "I hate giving up draft picks"--it's unlikely they'd go after Smith and Nassib just doesn't seem worthy of an 8th overall.
What they might do is trade down, look for some additional picks and go for a quarterback late in the first round or early in the second. If QB's are off the board at that point, they may even wait until the third round.
Take a look at what Seattle did last year at the draft.
In the off-season they signed free agent Matt Flynn, then drafted Russell Wilson in the third round. Something that wasn't lost on Nix.
Wilson along with 2nd round pick Colin Kapernick (SF, 2011) ended up being prolific starters for their team. Neither were picked in the first round.
"You look back at last year and the year before," said Nix, "Wilson and Kapernick, right now if you were drafting you'd take them first. Take them in the top-five."
There are a bevy of second and third round worthy quarterbacks in this draft that "do enough good things you can win with."
Tyler Wilson, Mike Glennon, Tyler Bray and possibly Matt Scott. All of them, including Nassib, have their flaws. All of them are projects at one level or another. None of them, including Nassib, are projected to be immediate starters.
So where does this all lead?
Methinks that if there was one quarterback the Bills are likely after it's Barkley.
If he's off the board or if they think they could get him lower than #8, they'll trade down to get some extra picks.
Ideally, they'd be able to land Barkley between #16 and #23 after a trade with either St. Louis or Minnesota, respectively, both of whom have two first round picks.
Both teams are said to be hot and heavy for West Virginia WR Tavon Austin.
The Rams have the 22nd pick as well while the Vikings have the 25th.
The Bills said at the luncheon that they'd be willing to trade down, but that they won't really know until draft day. "A lot of that will be determined by the first five or six picks of the draft." said Nix. "If there's four or five guys we like there, we'll move back."
Which four of five, we don't know.
Barkley or bust might be the their thoughts.
But methinks that, dependent upon how the first seven picks pan out, they're really not worried about having to draft Barkley. They're not worried about missing out on a quarterback other than him if they trade down.
If he's not there, they'll get someone with a late first-rounder (via trade-down) or even a QB other than Nassib if he's taken ahead of them in the second round.
Other than Barkley, is there really much of a difference between Nassib or Wilson who both could be available the second day?
I'd go as far as saying is there that much of a difference between Nassib and projected third-rounder Zac Dysert (my personal choice as they trade down and accumulate picks in the first and/or second round?)
No. Not really.
Why reach for a project when there are so many other holes on the team to fill?
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