Thursday, April 25, 2013

Should the Bills worry about not drafting a QB early?

No, not really.

Here are some reasons why.
  1. The 2013 Schedule--It's tough. As usual there are two vs. the Patriots juggernaut, and two each vs. Miami and the Jets. They have four against the AFC North which includes the Super Bowl Champion Ravens, a rising playoff team with the Bengals, an always tough Steelers team and a much stronger Cleveland team. They have the NFC South this season--The Falcons and Saints, Bucs and Panthers. Two are against the Chiefs and Jags. Even with a "franchise QB," can anyone see this team going more than 6-10 this season? With that defense?
  2. They should have a plug for a year or two in Kevin Kolb. When asked about the signing of Kolb, GM Buddy Nix said that it made him sleep better at night. "You never know what's gonna happen at the draft," he said at the Bills Luncheon, "You can do all the planning you want, but it's still a crapshoot. We targeted Kevin early [as a FA]. We think he's a tough, smart guy that's been successful when he's had the tools around him." And when he's been healthy. Kolb was rated highly three years ago, but his stock has dropped due to injury.
  3. Every QB in this class has flaws, which make a reach for that "franchise QB" even more of a crapshoot. At the Luncheon, Nix talked about the QB class in the draft. He said he thinks it's better than people think and that there are two or three "franchise" quarterbacks in the draft. But he also said, "There's about five or six of those guys, maybe seven, that do a lot of things good and do a lot of things good enough to win. The jury's still out on this group, but they do enough good things--if you do what they do best--you can win with them." Good, system specific QB's that have flaws in their games.
  4. The Ryan Nassib-hype. Really, Sal (Paolantonio)? The Bills are fearful that the Jets will whisk Nassib away? He was rated a second or third round pick during the season because he was a very good QB with a strong arm, but played in the seventh-best conference in college football. He's not an immediate starter and as a project--either near or long-term--success is still questionable. He moved up into the first round because quarterbacks usually move at the draft. He moved into the top-10 because a) the Bills have the 8th overall pick, b) they've said their looking to draft a "franchise QB" and c) the Bills hired his coach and offensive coordinator from Syracuse. If anything, the Bills may have put up the Nassib smokescreen by hiring the Syracuse coaching tandem. That "Syracuse connection" is a little too cozy to be successful.
  5. The Bills have many holes. On defense their linebackers are highly suspect, they have a less than average corner opposite Stephone Gilmore, and there are questions at safety. On offense they have one real WR and they let two starters at guard walk. There should be three or four players who can fill a position of need rated much higher than any of the QB's in this class.
That being said, if the Bills chose a Geno Smith or Matt Barkley with the 8th overall no one would fault them and that's fine. One would think those two are Nix's "franchise QB's." If they're still on the board and they have the opportunity to trade down, why not get that extra pick or two? One of them should be there five or eight spots lower, no matter what the Jets do.

They need help in too many areas and they'll need draft picks to do it.

Even if they "miss out" on Smith, Nassib or Barkley, there are others. They could even wait into the second round and reach for Zac Dysert, a player who they've been scouting for a while and who is likened to fellow Miami (OH) alum Ben Rothlisberger.

At 6'4", 228 pounds, he has the size. He has a good arm and performed well during his pro-day during inclement weather.

According to NFL.com's Gil Brandt, Dysert is a mid-round pick who doesn't quite have the arm or bulk of Rothlisberger, but has a lot of upside.

Nix has said that if you like a QB in the third round, you better get him in the second. He was inferring that QB's go higher than where they're ranked. Was it a Freudian slip that he didn't use second round to first round? At the Draft Luncheon he had this to say "You look back at last year and the year before, Russell Wilson and Colin Kapernick, right now if you were drafting you'd take them first. Take them in the top-five."

In a Last Great Act of Defiance (or stupidity for some,) as Nix gives way to AGM Doug Whaley, he might just trade down and take the best player available before reaching for a QB. If he has an extra second round pick, it's possible that Dysert could be picked with the latter as they address two pressing needs with their first and earlier second.



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